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US foreign policy and what it says to everyday Arab muslims.

There is a fierce debate within the United States on the wisdom of the current administration's foreign policy framework. Public opinion in the US is on balance negative. Not altogether surprising is the split, almost down the middle, of the academic and policy think tank communities.

With the exception of some world leaders and troubled factions within their political parties, the rest of the human race is surprisingly united in its opposition to US policies. Unconditional support of Israel, occupation of Iraq, support of less-than-democratic regimes, shady extradition practices, and the flouting of the Geneva Conventions, among other issues, have convinced the greater part of the human race that we are provoking conflict on a regional, if not global scale. In the last fifty years, the US has inspired great hope in its Middle Eastern diplomatic projects, particularly among everyday Arabs. Yet, almost without fail, such projects have languished, inspiring only disillusionment, anger, opposition, or worse. In the last twenty years, the willingness of the rest of the world to get behind the lofty rhetoric of US presidents has all but disappeared. Some observers wonder whether the current administration has spent the last of what little moral capital the United States had on the global stage.

In the short history of the United States, its regimes have cared little for the opinions of other governments or peoples. This is nothing unusual in the realm of international relations. The Executive has cared little for the opinions of large segments of the US citizenry. This is nothing unusual in the realm of government. The Executive has also demonstrated a lack of concern for the opinions of its Legislative and Judicial counterparts in government. Nothing surprising there. So, what is surprising about the current state of affairs? The sad truth is, not much.

What makes people so much more angry today is the arrogance, intrigue and impunity with which the US pursues its interests in the Middle East. (Nevermind what the Executive is pursuing at home.) But it doesn't stop there. What makes people in the Middle East so angry, in particular, is the casual way with which US politicians and corporate leaders play with their very lives. To be sure, other parties in the West and indeed in the Middle East, are responsible to a great degree for the suffering and hardship in the region. One could equivocate all day on who is responsible for what. The fact is that the US is in a position to change the fate of millions in the region and has promised to do so. Yet, instead of keeping its promises to the Middle East, it breaks them. Instead of bringing opportunity, it brings retrenchment. Instead of bringing stability, it brings war and anarchy. As any Arab will tell you -- as any Muslim will tell you -- this isn't all of it. Not for them. The suffering goes much deeper and has a long memory -- longer, certainly, than ours.

This makes the debate in the US over the wisdom of President Bush's policies subject to easy scorn. After all, we do not own the Middle East. We do not own the lives of Arabs or anyone else. We do not own their lands or the resources there. So why do we act the way we do? This is a complex question, and one that I will explore over a series of posts to this blog.

The problem with gurus

1. A very well known personality who has referred to himself as a professional trader, but who in reality is a currency strategist for a retail FX FCM.

2. A woman who calls herself an expert trader and who has in the past also referred to herself as a professional trader, but who in fact demures when asked to prove that she is profitable. Instead, she refers to her self-promoted media presence.

3. A professional trader, signal seller and analyst who plagiarizes entire paragraphs from another author's work on an obscure FX trading forum and, when caught, does not change his post to ackowledge his source.

These are not uncommon examples of the many personalities passing themselves off as honest people trying to help traders improve...for a price. I'll name them here. This isn't slander. It's a statement of fact. They charge money for products and services, but they are not forthright with their customers.

Boris Schlossberg, although probably a nice and very bright guy, is a bit vague about just how good of a trader he is. He has alternately called himself a "currency strategist" and a "professional trader" in the past few years. So which is it, Mr. Schlossberg? Grace Cheng is just plain unhelpful when one tries to question her about her actual trading performace. This was her answer to an email inquiry about whether she had a proven track record: "I am a full-time investor, and my trading expertise has been highlighted by the media (newspapers, TV etc)." The other is only known as "Kumar," owner of the subscription website FXSwingTraders. He, of course, is the plagiarizer. In response to a question from a novice trader, this is Kumar himself writing from the 4Xlounge:

The Heikin-Ashi technique is extremely useful for making candlestick charts more readable--trends can be located more easily, and buying opportunities can be spotted at a glance. The charts are constructed in the same manner as a normal candlestick chart, with the exception of the modified bar formulas. When properly used, this technique can help you spot trends and trend changes from which you can profit! There are five primary signals that identify trends and buying opportunities:

• Hollow candles with no lower "shadows" indicate a strong uptrend: let your profits ride!
• Hollow candles signify an uptrend: you might want to add to your long position, and exit short positions.
• One candle with a small body surrounded by upper and lower shadows indicates a trend change: risk-loving traders might buy or sell here, while others will wait for confirmation before going short or long.
• Filled candles indicate a downtrend: you might want to add to your short position, and exit long positions.
• Filled candles with no higher shadows identify a strong downtrend: stay short until there's a change in trend.

These are the only candles I like to use to determine a trend of the currency, and I like to look at the 4 hour charts.

And this is an excerpt from Justin Kuepper's article entitled Heiken Ashi: A Better Candlestick:

There are five primary signals that identify trends and buying opportunities:

• Hollow candles with no lower "shadows" indicate a strong uptrend: let your profits ride!
• Hollow candles signify an uptrend: you might want to add to your long position, and exit short positions.
• One candle with a small body surrounded by upper and lower shadows indicates a trend change: risk-loving traders might buy or sell here, while others will wait for confirmation before going short or long.
• Filled candles indicate a downtrend: you might want to add to your short position, and exit long positions.
• Filled candles with no higher shadows identify a strong downtrend: stay short until there's a change in trend.

These signals show that locating trends or opportunities becomes a lot easier with this system. The trends are not interrupted by false signals as often, and are thus more easily spotted. Furthermore, opportunities to buy during times of consolidation are also apparent.

Conclusion
The Heikin-Ashi technique is extremely useful for making candlestick charts more readable--trends can be located more easily, and buying opportunities can be spotted at a glance. The charts are constructed in the same manner as a normal candlestick chart, with the exception of the modified bar formulas. When properly used, this technique can help you spot trends and trend changes from which you can profit!

See any similarities? At least Kumar went to the trouble of moving Justin's conclusion to the top of the post. But does this make it any less obvious? How could someone be so brazen (or reckless)?

Of course, the person who asked Kumar to expound on Heiken Ashi was very grateful. It was, as he put it, exactly what he needed. Except that what he really needed was to read Kuepper's article and then follow up with a research plan for the indicator. Kumar, in his conceit and ambition, lost an opportunity to be genuinely helpful to his aspiring student.

Attempts to inform the forum of the source of the article were deleted by the owner of 4Xlounge, who has a business relationship with Mr. Kumar. The only original thought Kumar added was that he likes to look at the 4 hour charts. (Whoa there Kumar! Pull it back now! Pull it back!) Mr. Kumar and the 4Xlounge owner apparently feel it is not important to correct their error. The original article and author are still not referenced on the thread...hmmm.

I won't go into Schlossberg or Cheng, although I could write a few more pages about my exchanges and experiences with them and their work. Their cases are a bit more convoluted than Kumar's glaring and undistinguished example. The point is, we have a problem with integrity in the spot FX trading community. These three people are certainly not the worst offenders, but they are examples of just how easy it is to pass oneself off as a trader, and thus add cachet to one's business.

The problem with gurus is not that they are usually beneath the task, nor that they are usually dishonest. The problem is that they provide another reason for us to abrogate our responsibility to ourselves -- it's about due diligence, really. This is important whether we win or lose. Still, we are also obligated to hold ourselves and them accountable for ethical conduct, as we would hold any other professional accountable for their work.

It doesn't matter what kind of traders we are, or how experienced we are, or what part of the world we are from. We should all demand integrity from ourselves and from each other.

TLT

I'm back baby!

Still traveling in North Africa and the Middle East, but now have consistent access to the internet -- relatively speaking. Time away from the markets is always a good thing. At least, it is for me in the seven years I have been around. As the months went by, I kept abreast of major events and general technical levels. Not much has changed, from a trading standpoint. Others may disagree, but my point is that the old myth about the markets always displaying the same behavior still rings true for me. I, for one, believe Robert D. Edwards. He wrote in 1948 that the stock market "goes right on repeating the same same old movements in much the same routine. The importance of a knowledge of these phenomena to the trader and investor has been in no whit diminished." He wrote in 1951 that, "neither the mechanics nor the 'human element' of the stock market have changed, and there is no reason to think that they will." Bravo, Mr. Edwards. Bravo. Of course, he is speaking of technical analysis, but the same is true for business cycles. I am looking forward to getting back into the markets and to sharing ideas with you all.

Now that I will be posting again, I must start off by saying I was a bit concerned about another blogger with the same name -- The Lonely Trader. While his blog was registered well after my website of the same name (www.lonelytrader.com), I have no reason to believe he knew about me beforehand. So, unless he has a problem with it (in which case he first has some questions to answer) I'm going to continue posting under "The Lonely Trader" to keep it consistent with my website.